Despite sustained high interest rates, the US economy continues to outperform. The GDP growth estimate for 2024 was revised higher and is currently around 2.2%, up from 0.9% just six months ago. Although the upward revision was largely driven by the persistent strength of the US labour market, most parts of the US economy continue to record solid growth.
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US residential real estate has been on a tear for the last five years, beating global equities and significantly outperforming the total return from global bonds. However, in every boom are sown the seeds of the next bust: after years of rising faster than wages, US property is now more expensive relative to incomes and rents than at any time in its history.
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The simple answer is yes. It would not be the first emerging market to do so. Globally, central banks have cut policy rates 52 times so far this year, mostly in developing and emerging markets, including Brazil, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Georgia, Belarus, Chile, Peru and Poland.
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