Despite the uncertainty, his advice is clear: be invested. Stay the course. Don’t get shaken out of your long-term plan. “There are always many reasons not to do something, but don’t miss the one reason to act.”
Oberholzer believes we’re living through a once-in-a-generation structural shift marked by disruptive innovation, reconfigured supply chains, and the rise of AI-enabled productivity and says, “you can’t afford to sit this one out”. It’s not a statement made lightly. Oberholzer paints a vivid picture of a marketplace riddled with contradictions where political risk, global elections, and monetary policy changes collide with bullish momentum and record-high equity levels. “I’m a nervous bull,” he says. “Edgy, alert, but still positive.”
He likens the mood to being a cat on a hot tin roof ready to pounce, but cautious about where to land. And in this environment, one factor takes precedence over all others: liquidity. Oberholzer says it’s currently the number one batch of signals that STANLIB’s Multi-Asset team tracks, more important than GDP data or interest rates, and his team has a dedicated analyst focused solely on monitoring their liquidity signals, which includes capital flows.
This repeated focus has paid off over time. When liquidity tightens, STANLIB pulls back risk. When it expands, portfolios pivot to take advantage. It’s a dynamic, signal-based process supported by a team structured to blend long-term investment thinking with short-term trading execution. “Markets move faster than ever. The information changes, the risk profile changes, and you need to adjust.”
And that agility has been tested. The resurgence of Donald Trump and the chaotic announcement of new tariffs in April caught many investors off guard. Oberholzer concedes that he got the sequencing of the policy announcements wrong, having expected tariffs to arrive alongside other market-positive reforms like tax cuts and deregulation, as the new US administration went to work implementing its vision. “It was messy, aggressive, and markets reacted. But now that the uncertainty is gone, we’re seeing a rebound. The path is not perfectly clear, but we think markets are looking through some of the more negative market impacts.”
Looking east, China’s economic outlook remains complicate he says. While growth is expected to remain around 5%, a deflating property sector and low consumer confidence continue to dampen consumer behaviour. “The Chinese are conservative spenders,” Oberholzer notes. “They need to feel safe. Right now, they’re not taking risks, having had significant balance sheet damage in an asset class that was seen as fundamental to long term wealth creation and with almost religious-like belief that the government would never let property prices fall too far. The reality of the new world is clear and with it, some scepticism and prudence. It may take some time for the China domestic spending pattern to fire up again and with it, some form of animal spirits.”
But the most profound change influencing markets isn’t tied to GDP or geopolitics at all its behavioural. Retail investors, armed with smartphones, low-cost platforms, and one-day options, are reshaping trading patterns at record pace. “My 80-year-old mother has access to the same market information I do,” Oberholzer points out. “The edge isn’t data anymore. It’s how you interpret it.”
That’s where STANLIB Multi-Asset team’s strategy diverges from traditional houses. The company applies and blends a vast number of compartmentalised quantitative and qualitative signals across six investment “buckets” ranging from liquidity to behavioural trends. “We don’t rely on one view. That humility is essential,” he says. “If the price tells us we’re wrong, we move fast”.
Despite elevated valuations, Oberholzer is notably bullish on the U.S. equity market, particularly in the tech and innovation space. But he’s quick to stress that this isn’t just about tech stocks. It’s about tech-enabled productivity. “AI doesn’t just speed things up it reshapes margins, improves efficiency and ultimately drives earnings.”
The deregulation agenda in the U.S. could add further fuel to the fire. With fewer bureaucratic hurdles, businesses may move faster, innovate quicker, and contribute more meaningfully to overall growth.
“Entrepreneurs and creative thinkers need freedom to operate. That’s how you get productivity gains,” he says, suggesting that South Africa would do well to take note.
As for commodities, Oberholzer is less convinced by recent headlines heralding a super cycle. “I don’t think we’re there yet. Prices are volatile, and some metals are running hot. But we’re not in a full-blown cycle.” That said, the infrastructure underpinning new technologies and global technological pathways is likely to create sustained demand and that may offer selective upside in certain sectors. While it may lead to a supercycle, we think it’s likely too early to have conviction on that kind of theme.
At the heart of Oberholzer’s thinking is a disciplined balance between realism and optimism. Yes, the world is complex. Yes, volatility remains high, but we love volatility, because it presents opportunities. But behind the chaos lies a set of forces that could reshape market opportunities. Economies might be a big loser as there are many potential negative impacts. “This isn’t a time to panic. It’s a time to concentrate and be deliberate.”
