A hotter, more chaotic climate

Climate warming has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events which is hard to ignore. In total, there were 63 natural disasters worldwide in 2023, a new record, each of which incurred an economic cost of more than $1 billion. This climatic chaos is the product of average temperatures 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, and current estimates suggest the world is on track for 2.7°C of warming by 2100. What happens in future depends on what the world does next.

A rapid transition to a low-carbon economy will mean higher transition risks but lower physical risks. The speed of response is critical since, if emissions continue to climb, physical risks will become exponentially worse with higher levels of global warming. Unfortunately, the increase in global average temperatures and the increase in extreme events do not have a linear relationship, but an exponential one. Each incremental increase in global temperatures has a disproportionately large impact on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The faster we can halt the upward trajectory of global warming, the better the outcome will be.

At the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in 2015, the signatories to the Paris Agreement agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, while pursuing a more ambitious goal of only 1.5°C of global warming. South Africa, along with 194 other countries, signed the Paris Agreement on Earth Day, 22 April 2016.

Countries around the world are now legislating to meet their Paris Agreement goals, and the progress of these laws as well as their implementation will be essential to limit global warming. 

South Africa’s performance so far

South Africa accounts for just over 1% of global GHG emissions, making it the world’s 15th largest emitter. The government intends to fight climate change by reducing the country’s GHG emissions with four weapons.

The first weapon is the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) set in 2021, which targets 350-420 MtCO2e by 2030. The second is a stated goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The third is the Climate Change Bill, which will form the legislative foundation for South Africa’s climate change mitigation and adaption response. The Bill will include a national GHG emissions trajectory as well as sectoral emissions targets (SET) and an allocation of carbon budgets. The fourth weapon is the Just Energy Transition Partnership, launched by President Ramaphosa at COP 26 in 2021. This is an internationally-funded energy decarbonisation plan to help South Africa reduce its reliance on coal as a source of energy. The total funding pledge to date is over $11 billion.

However, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s release in early 2024 of the update to the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) has been greeted with widespread concern. It appeared to show the country backpedalling on its original ambitions. The update raised the IRP’s 2030 target for coal-fired generation capacity in 2030 by 18% while cutting the 2030 capacity target for hydropower by over 50%, for pumped storage by 43%, for wind by 55% and for solar by 29%.

Will the world achieve the Paris Agreement goals?

Not according to the Climate Action Tracker, an independent project that monitors government action. Under current policies and action, global average temperatures are projected to increase by around 2.7°C by 2100, compared with pre-industrial temperatures. When the CAT examined global progress towards 2030 targets, it found only one of the 42 indicators that it tracks was changing at the pace and scale required to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It also found that 2030 targets would result in around 2.5°C of global warming by 2100.

Energy generation accounts for more than 70% of the world’s emissions. Producing low-carbon energy will require a large amount of certain minerals and metals. The World Bank estimates that there will need to be a 500% increase in the production of critical minerals by 2050 if renewable energy investments were ramped up to required levels.

Africa is likely to be central to meeting these growing needs, as the continent is believed to hold around 30% of the world’s critical minerals, with a dominant share of platinum group metals (PGMs), phosphate, manganese, and cobalt.

Many possible scenarios will result in net zero emissions by 2050, which could secure a world in which global warming does not exceed 2°C. We believe that there is likely to be a climate action tipping point, when the impacts of climate change become sufficiently severe across enough of the world to trigger fast and drastic changes to the global economy.

Although we remain concerned at the slow progress the world is making to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, we are optimistic that these issues are attracting more attention and effort.